Logos of CIES Football Observatory and a sports website overlaid on a blue background
CIES with LALIGA logo | Camara Didac Aguirre
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CIES's prediction about the LaLiga champion comes to light

The team with the highest chances of winning LaLiga according to the CIES forecast

by

Didac Aguirre

After 3 matchdays, Real Madrid has risen to the top of LaLiga thanks to its 3 victories. Besides Athletic Club, no team managed to finish August completely unbeaten in LaLiga. Because of this, and according to the CIES forecast, Real Madrid is the clear favorite to win LaLiga with a 40.6% chance.

A more than deserved percentage for the team led by Xabi Alonso after its great start to the campaign. According to what we know at Defensa Central, the level shown by Real Madrid hasn't reached its ceiling yet. In second place in the CIES ranking is Barcelona, with a 29.6% chance of winning LaLiga.

Despite being the current champion, the blaugrana club isn't the same as last season. Its last match against Rayo Vallecano showed the weaknesses of the squad led by Hansi Flick. By making many mistakes, Barcelona could be at the beginning of a new era of dominance by Real Madrid.

The forecasted champion

After coming close to winning LaLiga last season, Real Madrid has started this campaign on the right foot. Everything Xabi Alonso managed to show during the Club World Cup has been enhanced in its recent matches. From constant pressing to ball dominance, Real Madrid is a well-drilled team.

Prediction table on which team will win the Spanish league according to CIES, with Real Madrid in first place with 40.6 percent, followed by FC Barcelona with 29.6 percent, Atlético de Madrid with 22.1 percent, Athletic Club with 3 percent, and Real Sociedad with 1.5 percent, on a sports television program.
CIES and its forecast for LaLiga | Didac Aguirre

Moreover, the signings made during the summer transfer window have fit in excellently with the team. With a much more solid and younger squad, Real Madrid hasn't had a rival at the start of this season. Besides Barcelona, CIES has placed Atlético de Madrid in third place in its ranking with a 22.1% chance.

An excessively high percentage for a club that has had one of the worst starts in its history, earning only 2 points. In fourth place is Athletic Club with a 3% chance of winning LaLiga. In fifth and last is Real Sociedad with 1.5%, which is a surprise given the sales it made during the summer.

Increasing the odds

Having more than a 40% chance to win LaLiga is excellent news for Real Madrid. While the club is the big favorite, the goal now is to considerably increase its percentage. Unlike last season, Real Madrid seeks to dominate every single team in Spain from start to finish.

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