Blurred table with probability predictions for teams in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup in the United States according to Opta Analyst, showing club names and percentages at different stages of the tournament
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This is the supercomputer's prediction for the World Cup winner: farewell to Madrid

Opta's data indicate that PSG is the favorite to win the championship, and Madrid is the fifth candidate in the prediction

OPTA's supercomputer has revealed its prediction for the Club World Cup. In it, PSG appears as the clear favorite to lift the title.

The team led by Luis Enrique, with players like Achraf, Fabián, Dembélé, and Donnarumma, starts with a 18.5% chance of winning (18.5%). This is despite having a tough group, which includes an opener against Atlético and a match with Botafogo.

Very close to PSG, Manchester City also has great chances. According to artificial intelligence, Pep Guardiola's side has a 17.8% chance of winning (17.8%). This is striking because City's season has actually been rather poor. However, the large financial outlay on signings like Cherki, Aït-Nouri, and Reijnders has raised its expectations.

Real Madrid, far from the top positions

The forecast isn't so encouraging for Spanish teams. Real Madrid, 15-time European champion, is in fifth place with just a 9.8% chance (9.8%).

The white team, now under the direction of Xabi Alonso, has a group that looks accessible at first glance with teams like Al Hilal, Pachuca, and RB Salzburg. These are teams it has beaten convincingly in recent encounters, but those victories don't convince the AI. In addition, Madrid is behind other heavyweights like Bayern Munich (12.8%) and Inter Milan (12.3%) (12.8% and 12.3%), last season's Champions League finalist.

Image showing Group H of a soccer tournament with the teams Real Madrid from Spain, Al Hilal from Saudi Arabia, Pachuca from Mexico, and Salzburg from Austria along with their respective crests.
Real Madrid's group in the Club World Cup | Real Madrid Confidencial

Atlético de Madrid fares even worse. Simeone's team has only a 5.1% chance (5.1%). That puts it in eighth place, quite far from the favorites.

Atlético will debut against PSG and, although it usually exceeds expectations, the supercomputer doesn't give it much credit. Teams like Chelsea (8.4%) and Borussia Dortmund (5.4%) (8.4% and 5.4%) appear with better percentages.

Non-European teams, little weight in the prediction

OPTA's Big Data gives hardly any prominence to clubs outside Europe. The first non-European team on the list is River Plate, with just a 0.3% (0.3%).

Other South American teams like Palmeiras and Flamengo also have minimal percentages. Even Al Hilal, Real Madrid's first opponent in the United States, has just a 0.3% chance (0.3%).

The Club World Cup final will be played on July 13 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. It will be then that we'll see if these predictions come true or if soccer surprises technology once again.

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