Real Madrid players in white uniforms celebrate on a field with a blue background and abstract lines, while a colorful logo partially covers the image.
Real Madrid's predictions for this Champions League are causing some concern | Camara Real Madrid Confidencial
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Opta's supercomputer turns its back on Real Madrid in the Champions League

The predictions for the white club in the top-level continental competition are not encouraging at all

by

Enrique Sanz

The European season is about to begin. With less than a week to go before the first matches of the league phase of the 25/26 edition of the Champions League, predictions about the winner are trending. As has often been the case in recent seasons, many have turned to artificial intelligence.

The analyses based on the statistics and the squad of all the top contenders to reach the final in Budapest have produced a striking result. Real Madrid, according to the forecasts of the statistics website Opta, has only a 12.4% chance of being at Puskás Arena on May 30, 2026. Its path to that clash at the end of the season isn't described any better.

Goalkeeper jumping to try to stop a ball during a soccer match while an opposing player heads the ball near the goal and other players watch the play.
Lucas Chevalier during this season's LOSC Lille–Real Madrid match | Real Madrid Confidencial

Opta's supercomputer places Xabi Alonso's squad in seventh place in the ranking of favorites to win a new continental title this season. According to the results of its analyses, a Madrid victory in the 25/26 Champions League has only a 5.8% chance of happening.

Many believe that percentage is too low. Especially considering the reinforcements added during the summer transfer window, as well as Real Madrid's history in the continental competition. In any case, the supercomputer's predictions aren't encouraging at all.

These aren't good numbers to start with

In addition to having only a 12.4% chance of reaching the Champions League final, this artificial intelligence has made it clear that they aren't fully confident in the knockout rounds. Real Madrid has a 46.7% chance of reaching the quarterfinals, a round in which it was eliminated by Arsenal in the previous edition.

Real Madrid would only make it to the semifinals a total of 24.9 times out of 100 attempts: the Merengue squad would get past a quarter of the hypothetical quarterfinals played. The gap compared to the top contenders according to Opta's assessments and analyses is more than striking.

Soccer players from two teams compete for a ball in the air during a match in a stadium full of spectators.
An action from the Liverpool-Real Madrid Champions League 24/25 | Getty Images

Liverpool is the main contender according to the supercomputer to win a new edition of the Champions League. Not for nothing do Arne Slot's players have a 34% chance of reaching the final to be played in Hungary. Its victory percentage in that final is unbelievable: 20.4% compared to the 5.8% that Real Madrid currently has.

The data collected by this artificial intelligence place Arsenal as the second best-positioned team to win the 25/26 Champions League, while PSG completes this particular podium. Right behind is Manchester City, while FC Barcelona and Chelsea occupy fifth and sixth place in Opta's ranking.

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